Results are out from a recent WTHR/HPI Poll analyzing the state of the Gubernatorial and United States Senate races in Indiana. The polls show Democratic candidates John Gregg and Evan Bayh holding narrow advantages in the contests, with each candidate's lead being driven by strong support from minorities and women, highlighting the important role these voters will play in this year's election.
In the U.S. Senate race, former Democratic Governor and Senator Evan Bayh holds a 4 point lead according to the poll, which reports a margin of error of +/- 4%, placing the results just within the margin of error.
Bayh is tied with his opponent among white voters and trails by 6% among men. However, a 27% lead among minority voters and a 13% advantage among women are fueling his lead.
Source: http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race
WTHR/HPI reports that Bayh enjoys an overall favorability rating, with 12% more voters holding a favorable view of him than of his opponent. As you can see below, the gap is much wider among minority and female voters than among white voters and men.
Source: http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race
There appears to be a similar dynamic in play in the Gubernatorial race. Here WTHR/HPI reports that Democratic candidate John Gregg has a 5 point lead, which is just outside the poll's +/- 5% margin.
Again, the lead is driven by large margins of support among minority (+35%) and female (+9%) voters, while the race remains a dead heat among white voters and men.
Source: http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-gregg-holds-small-lead-on-holcomb
The favorability gap seems more consistent for Gregg than for Bayh, however, with the former Speaker of the Indiana Statehouse only falling behind his opponent among men over the age of 55 (and then only by 2%).
Source: http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-gregg-holds-small-lead-on-holcomb
What does this mean for the races in Indiana? Our take is that turnout among minority and female voters will likely determine the outcome of this election.
The WTHR/HPI poll also reported a 7% lead for Presidential candidate Donald Trump over rival Hillary Clinton. This provides a natural advantage to conservative candidates in a tight race.
Whether or not Gregg or Bayh can translate their advantages among Indiana's minorities and Hoosier women by inspiring these groups to turn out on election day remains to seen. By either showing up or not, however, these will be the voters who decide this race.